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Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. While some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.