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Amid the considerable disarray regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and seize its president – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may regret it if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.